V-Lab
Catalyst Media Group PLC Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
78.73%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Week
86.26%
increased by 6.91%
1 Month
92.02%
increased by 12.67%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 02:27 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.2655 | 3.12*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1462 | 3.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5334 | 4.40*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.7875 | 0.31 |
| γ2 | -0.8289 | -0.21 |
| γ3 | -0.8658 | -0.31 |
| γ4 | 3.5201 | 1.16 |
| γ5 | -4.5805 | -1.41 |
| γ6 | 2.3200 | 0.72 |
| γ7 | 0.6214 | 0.23 |
| γ8 | -3.9394 | -1.82* |
| γ9 | 7.7087 | 4.33*** |
| γ10 | -7.2952 | -6.26*** |
Persistence:
0.680
Half-life:
2 days
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