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V-Lab

Catalyst Media Group PLC Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

78.73%

decreased by 0.62%

1 Week

86.26%

increased by 6.91%

1 Month

92.02%

increased by 12.67%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 02:27 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Catalyst Media Group PLC S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.2655
3.12***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1462
3.06***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5334
4.40***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.7875
0.31
γ2-0.8289
-0.21
γ3-0.8658
-0.31
γ43.5201
1.16
γ5-4.5805
-1.41
γ62.3200
0.72
γ70.6214
0.23
γ8-3.9394
-1.82*
γ97.7087
4.33***
γ10-7.2952
-6.26***

Persistence:

0.680

Half-life:

2 days