V-Lab
Catalyst Media Group PLC GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
49.87%
decreased by 1.08%
1 Week
50.04%
decreased by 0.91%
1 Month
50.60%
decreased by 0.35%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 6, 2026 at 02:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Sep 4, 2026Illiquid Asset
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 26 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 26 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 26-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2890 | 1.79* |
| αARCH | 0.0289 | 1.61 |
| βGARCH | 0.9302 | 35.74*** |
| γleverage | 0.0300 | 0.74 |
0.974
Persistence26d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2890 | 1.79* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0289 | 1.61 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9302 | 35.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0300 | 0.74 |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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