V-Lab
Catalyst Media Group PLC EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
49.32%
decreased by 1.36%
1 Week
51.64%
increased by 0.96%
1 Month
59.77%
increased by 9.09%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 6, 2026 at 02:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Sep 4, 2026Illiquid Asset
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 16-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1401 | 1.84* |
| αARCH | 0.1241 | 3.34*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9588 | 43.94*** |
| γleverage | -0.0452 | -1.05 |
0.959
Persistence16d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1401 | 1.84* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1241 | 3.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9588 | 43.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0452 | -1.05 |
Persistence:
0.959
Half-life:
16 days
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