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Catalyst Media Group PLC GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026

1 Day

1.94%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Week

2.82%

increased by 0.86%

1 Month

4.97%

increased by 3.01%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 6, 2026 at 02:10 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Catalyst Media Group PLC GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2007 to Sep 4, 2026
Illiquid Asset
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Unreliable tails: v = 2.00 sits at the infinite-variance boundary
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst8.3596
2.47**
αARCH0.2273
269.00***
βGARCH0.9990
2,454.55***
νDF2.0000

0.999

Persistence

693d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

8.3596
2.47**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2273
269.00***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
2,454.55***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.0000

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days