V-Lab
Catalyst Media Group PLC Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
42.23%
increased by 0.10%
1 Week
45.04%
increased by 2.91%
1 Month
49.20%
increased by 7.07%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 6, 2026 at 02:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.
μ
AMEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.7049 | 2.39** |
| αARCH | 0.2543 | 3.35*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6208 | 10.03*** |
| γleverage | -0.0709 | -0.52 |
0.840
Persistence4d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7049 | 2.39** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2543 | 3.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6208 | 10.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0709 | -0.52 |
Persistence:
0.840
Half-life:
4 days
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