Makoto Construction Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
47.67%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Week
53.95%
increased by 5.97%
1 Month
61.69%
increased by 13.71%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 21, 2006 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6356 | 2.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1779 | 5.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6338 | 11.60*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.9416 | 2.07** |
| γ2 | -1.5477 | -2.58*** |
| γ3 | 0.9538 | 3.41*** |
| γ4 | -0.6587 | -2.19** |
| γ5 | 0.5749 | 1.69* |
| γ6 | -0.1706 | -0.58 |
| γ7 | -0.2588 | -1.11 |
| γ8 | 0.1787 | 0.42 |
| γ9 | 0.2368 | 0.43 |
| γ10 | -0.4745 | -1.28 |
Persistence:
0.812
Half-life:
3 days
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