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V-Lab

Makoto Construction Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

49.64%

decreased by 0.46%

1 Week

55.72%

increased by 5.62%

1 Month

63.35%

increased by 13.25%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 07:38 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Makoto Construction Co Ltd S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 21, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.6240
2.83***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1785
5.83***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6356
11.76***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.9249
2.02**
γ2-1.5220
-2.52**
γ30.9377
3.35***
γ4-0.6465
-2.16**
γ50.5673
1.67*
γ6-0.1649
-0.55
γ7-0.2723
-1.19
γ80.2080
0.50
γ90.1947
0.36
γ10-0.4433
-1.18

Persistence:

0.814

Half-life:

3 days