Makoto Construction Co Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
26.13%
decreased by 1.05%
1 Week
27.30%
increased by 0.12%
1 Month
30.88%
increased by 3.70%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 21, 2006 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.32) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1934 | 15.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1193 | 21.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8521 | 159.93*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3168 | 3.42*** |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
24 days
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