Makoto Construction Co Ltd Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
32.03%
increased by 1.85%
1 Week
33.60%
increased by 3.42%
1 Month
37.45%
increased by 7.27%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 02:23 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 21, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. The volatility power δ = 1.30 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2735 | 8.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2008 | 25.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7587 | 74.51*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0162 | -0.80 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.3016 | 18.22*** |
Persistence:
0.925
Half-life:
9 days
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