Makoto Construction Co Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
46.22%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Week
52.32%
increased by 5.78%
1 Month
59.84%
increased by 13.30%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 21, 2006 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6493 | 2.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1789 | 5.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6327 | 11.58*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.9722 | 2.12** |
| γ2 | -1.6026 | -2.64*** |
| γ3 | 0.9990 | 3.56*** |
| γ4 | -0.6967 | -2.32** |
| γ5 | 0.6029 | 1.78* |
| γ6 | -0.1876 | -0.64 |
| γ7 | -0.2492 | -1.07 |
| γ8 | 0.1714 | 0.40 |
| γ9 | 0.2459 | 0.43 |
| γ10 | -0.4963 | -0.90 |
Persistence:
0.812
Half-life:
3 days
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