Ningbo Daye Garden Machinery Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
49.65%
1 Week
50.54%
1 Month
52.42%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 1, 2020 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 160% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1540 | 11.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7875 | 34.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0947 | -8.03*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2.1112 | 0.69 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1639 | 0.80 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6668 | 1.48 |
Persistence:
0.894
Half-life:
6 days
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