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V-Lab

Ningbo Daye Garden Machinery Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

49.65%

increased by 2.00%

1 Week

50.54%

increased by 2.89%

1 Month

52.42%

increased by 4.77%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:23 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Ningbo Daye Garden Machinery Co Ltd MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 1, 2020 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 160% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

81
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1540
11.50***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7875
34.08***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0947
-8.03***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

2.1112
0.69
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1639
0.80
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.6668
1.48

Persistence:

0.894

Half-life:

6 days