V-Lab
Ningbo Daye Garden Machinery Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
43.27%
1 Week
45.07%
1 Month
49.04%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 07:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 1, 2020 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 154% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1491 | 11.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7897 | 34.82*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0903 | -7.94*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2.0978 | 0.69 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1778 | 0.81 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6499 | 1.39 |
Persistence:
0.894
Half-life:
6 days
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