Ningbo Daye Garden Machinery Co Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
48.63%
increased by 6.39%
1 Week
47.25%
increased by 5.01%
1 Month
44.45%
increased by 2.21%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 1, 2020 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5823 | 4.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1245 | 4.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7536 | 13.73*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 2.0736 | 3.06*** |
| γ2 | -3.3729 | -3.09*** |
| γ3 | 2.7436 | 3.08*** |
| γ4 | -2.6857 | -3.52*** |
| γ5 | 1.5220 | 1.68* |
Persistence:
0.878
Half-life:
5 days
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