Ningbo Daye Garden Machinery Co Ltd Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
73.05%
increased by 7.38%
1 Week
70.80%
increased by 5.13%
1 Month
65.71%
increased by 0.04%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 1, 2020 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. The volatility power δ = 0.86 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2801 | 4.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3306 | 31.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6468 | 52.40*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0003 | -0.02 |
δ power Transformation power | 0.8558 | 5.97*** |
Persistence:
0.910
Half-life:
7 days
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