Ningbo Daye Garden Machinery Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
49.89%
increased by 6.13%
1 Week
48.80%
increased by 5.04%
1 Month
46.63%
increased by 2.87%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 1, 2020 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5839 | 4.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1236 | 3.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7540 | 13.53*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 2.0850 | 3.09*** |
| γ2 | -3.3982 | -3.13*** |
| γ3 | 2.7903 | 3.14*** |
| γ4 | -2.7986 | -3.73*** |
| γ5 | 1.8317 | 3.95*** |
Persistence:
0.878
Half-life:
5 days
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