Ningbo Daye Garden Machinery Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
67.30%
increased by 11.31%
1 Week
67.11%
increased by 11.12%
1 Month
66.59%
increased by 10.60%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 1, 2020 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.60 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 17.0770 | 4.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1446 | 18.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9399 | 79.81*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.5985 | 9.37*** |
Persistence:
0.940
Half-life:
11 days
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