V-Lab
Ningbo Daye Garden Machinery Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
46.56%
decreased by 5.68%
1 Week
48.91%
decreased by 3.33%
1 Month
54.81%
increased by 2.57%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 07:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 1, 2020 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 16.4238 | 5.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1403 | 18.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9397 | 81.58*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.6474 | 8.97*** |
Persistence:
0.940
Half-life:
11 days
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