Ningbo Daye Garden Machinery Co Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
44.42%
decreased by 1.76%
1 Week
49.79%
increased by 3.61%
1 Month
57.33%
increased by 11.15%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 1, 2020 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.37) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.4038 | 25.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2554 | 24.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5838 | 102.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3652 | -2.48** |
Persistence:
0.839
Half-life:
4 days
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