V-Lab
Anhui Tatfook Technology Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
45.33%
increased by 0.47%
1 Week
45.90%
increased by 1.04%
1 Month
47.58%
increased by 2.72%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 26, 2010 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 16 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8100 | 6.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0799 | 4.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8766 | 28.82*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0205 | -1.92* |
| γ2 | 0.0261 | 1.92* |
Persistence:
0.957
Half-life:
16 days
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