V-Lab
Anhui Tatfook Technology Co Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
43.69%
increased by 0.48%
1 Week
44.02%
increased by 0.81%
1 Month
45.03%
increased by 1.82%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 26, 2010 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 17 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8993 | 8.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0791 | 5.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8807 | 30.47*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0070 | -1.41 |
Persistence:
0.960
Half-life:
17 days
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