V-Lab
Anhui Tatfook Technology Co Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
50.23%
1 Week
51.01%
1 Month
53.51%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 26, 2010 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 22% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 1.40 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2262 | 9.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0917 | 18.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8888 | 140.16*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0715 | -2.79*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.3967 | 16.11*** |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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