V-Lab
Iwatsuka Confectionery Co MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
11.00%
1 Week
12.16%
1 Month
13.99%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 11:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 24, 1995 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 83% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2984 | 26.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5971 | 46.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1352 | -9.47*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0117 | 2.53** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0300 | 3.60*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9660 | 97.80*** |
Persistence:
0.828
Half-life:
4 days
Other Iwatsuka Confectionery Co Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on International Equities