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V-Lab

Iwatsuka Confectionery Co MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

11.00%

decreased by 0.77%

1 Week

12.16%

increased by 0.39%

1 Month

13.99%

increased by 2.22%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 11:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Iwatsuka Confectionery Co MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 24, 1995 to Aug 21, 2026
Stationarity Enforced

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 83% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2984
26.91***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5971
46.74***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1352
-9.47***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0117
2.53**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0300
3.60***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9660
97.80***

Persistence:

0.828

Half-life:

4 days