V-Lab
Iwatsuka Confectionery Co Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
6.83%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Week
7.41%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Month
8.41%
increased by 0.96%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 24, 1995 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.3370 | 4.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2236 | 8.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6531 | 19.33*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.1533 | 1.54 |
| γ2 | -0.1514 | -0.98 |
| γ3 | 0.0801 | 0.63 |
| γ4 | -0.1944 | -1.67* |
| γ5 | 0.2358 | 2.10** |
| γ6 | -0.2716 | -2.17** |
| γ7 | 0.2944 | 2.43** |
| γ8 | -0.3589 | -2.80*** |
| γ9 | 0.4673 | 3.93*** |
| γ10 | -0.5547 | -3.86*** |
Persistence:
0.877
Half-life:
5 days
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