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V-Lab

Iwatsuka Confectionery Co Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

13.63%

decreased by 0.18%

1 Week

13.73%

decreased by 0.08%

1 Month

14.09%

increased by 0.28%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:19 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Iwatsuka Confectionery Co AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 24, 1995 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 385 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 111% more than negative returns

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0064
3.84***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0451
14.96***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9650
426.22***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0237
-3.47***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

385 days