V-Lab
Iwatsuka Confectionery Co Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
13.63%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Week
13.73%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Month
14.09%
increased by 0.28%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 24, 1995 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 385 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 111% more than negative returns
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0064 | 3.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0451 | 14.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9650 | 426.22*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0237 | -3.47*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
385 days
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