V-Lab
Iwatsuka Confectionery Co GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
12.00%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Week
12.71%
increased by 0.48%
1 Month
15.12%
increased by 2.89%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 24, 1995 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 132 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 60% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0377 | 11.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1249 | 17.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8932 | 291.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0467 | -4.34*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
132 days
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