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V-Lab

Iwatsuka Confectionery Co GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

11.97%

decreased by 0.24%

1 Week

12.69%

increased by 0.48%

1 Month

15.13%

increased by 2.92%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 10:51 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Iwatsuka Confectionery Co GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 24, 1995 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 128 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 60% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0382
11.48***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1251
17.63***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8928
289.60***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0467
-4.33***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

128 days