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V-Lab

Iwatsuka Confectionery Co GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

25.22%

decreased by 1.76%

1 Week

28.03%

increased by 1.05%

1 Month

36.97%

increased by 9.99%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 10:55 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Iwatsuka Confectionery Co GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 24, 1995 to Aug 7, 2026
Extended Optimization

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 173 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

77.0385
5.93***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1209
161.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9960
1,591.07***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.1215
1,008.82***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

173 days