V-Lab
Iwatsuka Confectionery Co Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
12.76%
1 Week
12.88%
1 Month
13.31%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 07:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 24, 1995 to Aug 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 85 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 2.90 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 94% more than negative returns
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0117 | 12.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0267 | 7.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9501 | 514.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1140 | -7.37*** |
δ power Transformation power | 2.9007 | 20.11*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
85 days
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