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V-Lab

Iwatsuka Confectionery Co Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

12.76%

increased by 0.05%

1 Week

12.88%

increased by 0.17%

1 Month

13.31%

increased by 0.60%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 07:57 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Iwatsuka Confectionery Co APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 24, 1995 to Aug 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 85 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 2.90 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 94% more than negative returns

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0117
12.75***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0267
7.80***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9501
514.97***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1140
-7.37***
δ

power

Transformation power

2.9007
20.11***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

85 days