Skip to main content
V-Lab

Iwatsuka Confectionery Co Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

11.70%

increased by 1.38%

1 Week

12.65%

increased by 2.33%

1 Month

14.34%

increased by 4.02%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 07:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Iwatsuka Confectionery Co S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 24, 1995 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.1906
4.60***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2238
8.41***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6561
19.36***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.1135
1.13
γ2-0.0873
-0.56
γ30.0366
0.29
γ4-0.1577
-1.37
γ50.2019
1.77*
γ6-0.2385
-1.88*
γ70.2568
2.10**
γ8-0.3019
-2.33**
γ90.3458
3.09***
γ10-0.2142
-3.54***

Persistence:

0.880

Half-life:

5 days