V-Lab
Iwatsuka Confectionery Co Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
9.66%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Week
11.15%
increased by 1.34%
1 Month
13.61%
increased by 3.80%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 07:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 24, 1995 to Aug 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.1977 | 4.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2242 | 8.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6560 | 19.37*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.1134 | 1.13 |
| γ2 | -0.0871 | -0.56 |
| γ3 | 0.0362 | 0.29 |
| γ4 | -0.1576 | -1.37 |
| γ5 | 0.2028 | 1.80* |
| γ6 | -0.2401 | -1.90* |
| γ7 | 0.2580 | 2.11** |
| γ8 | -0.3014 | -2.32** |
| γ9 | 0.3438 | 3.04*** |
| γ10 | -0.2120 | -3.48*** |
Persistence:
0.880
Half-life:
5 days
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