V-Lab
Iwatsuka Confectionery Co Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
11.70%
increased by 1.38%
1 Week
12.65%
increased by 2.33%
1 Month
14.34%
increased by 4.02%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 07:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 24, 1995 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.1906 | 4.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2238 | 8.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6561 | 19.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.1135 | 1.13 |
| γ2 | -0.0873 | -0.56 |
| γ3 | 0.0366 | 0.29 |
| γ4 | -0.1577 | -1.37 |
| γ5 | 0.2019 | 1.77* |
| γ6 | -0.2385 | -1.88* |
| γ7 | 0.2568 | 2.10** |
| γ8 | -0.3019 | -2.33** |
| γ9 | 0.3458 | 3.09*** |
| γ10 | -0.2142 | -3.54*** |
Persistence:
0.880
Half-life:
5 days
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