V-Lab
Iwatsuka Confectionery Co Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
11.13%
decreased by 0.84%
1 Week
12.16%
increased by 0.19%
1 Month
13.95%
increased by 1.98%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 11:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 24, 1995 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.1936 | 4.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2241 | 8.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6562 | 19.38*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.1130 | 1.13 |
| γ2 | -0.0868 | -0.56 |
| γ3 | 0.0362 | 0.29 |
| γ4 | -0.1578 | -1.38 |
| γ5 | 0.2040 | 1.82* |
| γ6 | -0.2418 | -1.92* |
| γ7 | 0.2590 | 2.12** |
| γ8 | -0.3011 | -2.32** |
| γ9 | 0.3428 | 3.01*** |
| γ10 | -0.2114 | -3.44*** |
Persistence:
0.880
Half-life:
5 days
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