V-Lab
Iwatsuka Confectionery Co MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
13.59%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Week
13.70%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
14.14%
increased by 0.37%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 24, 1995 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 3648 trading days (~14.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0061 | 1.15 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0342 | 18.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9656 | 451.85*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
3648 days
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