Henry Hub Natural Gas GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
55.48%
increased by 4.82%
1 Week
55.86%
increased by 5.20%
1 Month
57.32%
increased by 6.66%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 159 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~159 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1375 | 4.93*** |
| αARCH | 0.0880 | 6.39*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9088 | 129.82*** |
| γleverage | -0.0024 | -0.09 |
0.996
Persistence159d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1375 | 4.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0880 | 6.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9088 | 129.82*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0024 | -0.09 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
159 days
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