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V-Lab

MSCI USA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 28th, 2026

1 Day

11.05%

decreased by 0.29%

1 Week

11.55%

increased by 0.21%

1 Month

12.60%

increased by 1.26%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 04:30 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI USA MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 27, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8495
68.34***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1855
11.70***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0103
1.60
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0613
2.03**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9281
25.99***

Persistence:

0.942

Half-life:

12 days