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V-Lab

MSCI USA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026

1 Day

11.89%

decreased by 0.30%

1 Week

12.04%

decreased by 0.15%

1 Month

12.44%

increased by 0.25%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 06:41 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/29/2024

to

10/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI USA MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 22, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow66
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.8498
68.60***
γleverage0.1851
11.69***
λ₁tau intercept0.0102
1.60
λ₂forecast adj.0.0611
2.03**
λ₃tau persistence0.9283
26.12***

0.942

Persistence

12d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8498
68.60***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1851
11.69***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0102
1.60
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0611
2.03**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9283
26.12***

Persistence:

0.942

Half-life:

12 days