V-Lab
MSCI Asia Pacific MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
19.97%
decreased by 1.02%
1 Week
20.18%
decreased by 0.81%
1 Month
20.64%
decreased by 0.35%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0183 | 1.96* |
| βGARCH | 0.7831 | 46.34*** |
| γleverage | 0.1723 | 8.82*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0075 | 2.92*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0458 | 5.18*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9483 | 93.96*** |
0.888
Persistence6d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0183 | 1.96* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7831 | 46.34*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1723 | 8.82*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0075 | 2.92*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0458 | 5.18*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9483 | 93.96*** |
Persistence:
0.888
Half-life:
6 days
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