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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026

1 Day

34.79%

decreased by 1.70%

1 Week

34.41%

decreased by 2.08%

1 Month

33.07%

decreased by 3.42%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 09:37 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 14, 2003 to Jul 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 368% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0460
20.08***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0293
10.62***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8964
332.99***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1076
16.93***

Persistence:

0.979

Half-life:

33 days