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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 30th, 2026

1 Day

31.33%

increased by 1.07%

1 Week

31.06%

increased by 0.80%

1 Month

30.08%

decreased by 0.18%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 14, 2003 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 365% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0462
20.14***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0294
10.67***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8963
332.57***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1072
16.92***

Persistence:

0.979

Half-life:

33 days