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iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

39.08%

decreased by 1.25%

1 Week

38.58%

decreased by 1.75%

1 Month

36.76%

decreased by 3.57%

Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:35 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 14, 2003 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 381% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 381% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0465
5.05***
αARCH0.0284
2.60***
βGARCH0.8966
84.68***
γleverage0.1084
4.29***

0.979

Persistence

33d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0465
5.05***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0284
2.60***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8966
84.68***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1084
4.29***

Persistence:

0.979

Half-life:

33 days