V-Lab
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
25.55%
decreased by 1.00%
1 Week
25.48%
decreased by 1.07%
1 Month
25.21%
decreased by 1.34%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 14, 2003 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 367% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0473 | 20.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0296 | 10.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8949 | 329.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1085 | 17.00*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
32 days
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