iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
39.08%
decreased by 1.25%
1 Week
38.58%
decreased by 1.75%
1 Month
36.76%
decreased by 3.57%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:35 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 14, 2003 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 381% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 381% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0465 | 5.05*** |
| αARCH | 0.0284 | 2.60*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8966 | 84.68*** |
| γleverage | 0.1084 | 4.29*** |
0.979
Persistence33d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0465 | 5.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0284 | 2.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8966 | 84.68*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1084 | 4.29*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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