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V-Lab

Franklin XRP ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

22.09%

increased by 0.67%

1 Week

693.03%

increased by 671.61%

1 Month

6,305,889,627.96%

increased by 6,305,889,606.54%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:57 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Franklin XRP ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 24, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

81
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.02
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9243
1,770.60***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1515
321.60***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2844
12.52***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0041
0.05

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days