V-Lab
Franklin XRP ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
47.19%
decreased by 1.41%
1 Week
55.73%
increased by 7.13%
1 Month
63.45%
increased by 14.85%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 24, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 108% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.86 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 3.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2603 | 6.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5036 | 7.78*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4022 | 2.94*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.8612 | 4.77*** |
Persistence:
0.708
Half-life:
2 days
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