CBOE Volatility Index

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How volatility evolves over time

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{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

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Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
mwindow	126
αARCH	0.0038	0.31
βGARCH	0.6577	6.75***
γleverage	0.2714	1.86*
λ₁tau intercept	10.0000	0.33
λ₂forecast adj.	0.0000	0.00
λ₃tau persistence	0.4957	0.31

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	126
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.0038	0.31
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.6577	6.75***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	0.2714	1.86*
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	10.0000	0.33
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.0000	0.00
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.4957	0.31

V-Lab

Victoria's Secret & Co MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Volatility Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other Victoria's Secret & Co Analyses