V-Lab
Vietnam Ho Chi Minh Stock Index / VN-Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
16.58%
decreased by 0.76%
1 Week
16.89%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Month
17.81%
increased by 0.47%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 12, 2010 to Apr 29, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 16 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.5308 | 5.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1187 | 6.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8387 | 35.34*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.2066 | 5.60*** |
| γ2 | -0.2514 | -4.31*** |
| γ3 | 0.0476 | 1.23 |
Persistence:
0.957
Half-life:
16 days
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