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Vietnam Ho Chi Minh Stock Index / VN-Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

13.57%

decreased by 0.52%

1 Week

14.81%

increased by 0.72%

1 Month

18.12%

increased by 4.03%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:51 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Vietnam Ho Chi Minh Stock Index / VN-Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 28, 2000 to Oct 15, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 17 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.6639
5.84***
αARCH0.1996
11.67***
βGARCH0.7595
39.60***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ10.2398
6.15***
γ2-0.3275
-5.36***
γ30.0648
1.45
γ40.0823
2.09**
γ5-0.0925
-2.20**
γ60.0380
1.06

0.959

Persistence

17d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.6639
5.84***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1996
11.67***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7595
39.60***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ10.2398
6.15***
γ2-0.3275
-5.36***
γ30.0648
1.45
γ40.0823
2.09**
γ5-0.0925
-2.20**
γ60.0380
1.06

Persistence:

0.959

Half-life:

17 days