Vietnam Ho Chi Minh Stock Index / VN-Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
13.57%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Week
14.81%
increased by 0.72%
1 Month
18.12%
increased by 4.03%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:51 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 28, 2000 to Oct 15, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 17 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.6639 | 5.84*** |
| αARCH | 0.1996 | 11.67*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7595 | 39.60*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.2398 | 6.15*** |
| γ2 | -0.3275 | -5.36*** |
| γ3 | 0.0648 | 1.45 |
| γ4 | 0.0823 | 2.09** |
| γ5 | -0.0925 | -2.20** |
| γ6 | 0.0380 | 1.06 |
0.959
Persistence17d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6639 | 5.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1996 | 11.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7595 | 39.60*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.2398 | 6.15*** |
| γ2 | -0.3275 | -5.36*** |
| γ3 | 0.0648 | 1.45 |
| γ4 | 0.0823 | 2.09** |
| γ5 | -0.0925 | -2.20** |
| γ6 | 0.0380 | 1.06 |
Persistence:
0.959
Half-life:
17 days
Other Vietnam Ho Chi Minh Stock Index / VN-Index Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices