Vietnam Ho Chi Minh Stock Index / VN-Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
12.33%
1 Week
12.83%
1 Month
14.61%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 28, 2000 to Oct 15, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 137 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.82 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 5.5825 | 1.21 |
| αscore | 0.1582 | 15.76*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9950 | 246.58*** |
| νDF | 6.8203 | 3.94*** |
0.995
Persistence137d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 5.5825 | 1.21 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1582 | 15.76*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9950 | 246.58*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.8203 | 3.94*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
137 days
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