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Vietnam Ho Chi Minh Stock Index / VN-Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
28.65%
increased by 1.67%
1 Week
28.80%
increased by 1.82%
1 Month
29.39%
increased by 2.41%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 12, 2010 to Apr 29, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 642 trading days (~2.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.89 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 19.0305 | 7.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1095 | 59.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9989 | 6,889.11*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.8872 | 17.20*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
642 days
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