Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Vietnam Ho Chi Minh Stock Index / VN-Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

12.33%

decreased by 0.78%

1 Week

12.83%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Month

14.61%

increased by 1.50%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Vietnam Ho Chi Minh Stock Index / VN-Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 28, 2000 to Oct 15, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 137 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.82 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~137 daysv = 6.82 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run5.5825
1.21
αscore0.1582
15.76***
βpersistence0.9950
246.58***
νDF6.8203
3.94***

0.995

Persistence

137d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

5.5825
1.21
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1582
15.76***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9950
246.58***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.8203
3.94***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

137 days