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Vietnam Ho Chi Minh Stock Index / VN-Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

28.65%

increased by 1.67%

1 Week

28.80%

increased by 1.82%

1 Month

29.39%

increased by 2.41%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:19 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Vietnam Ho Chi Minh Stock Index / VN-Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 12, 2010 to Apr 29, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 642 trading days (~2.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.89 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

19.0305
7.00***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1095
59.85***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9989
6,889.11***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.8872
17.20***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

642 days