V-Lab
Vietnam Ho Chi Minh Stock Index / VN-Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
19.66%
increased by 2.65%
1 Week
19.96%
increased by 2.95%
1 Month
21.02%
increased by 4.01%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 12, 2010 to Apr 29, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 109% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.04 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0413 | 12.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1252 | 30.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8748 | 192.56*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3402 | 11.31*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0390 | 20.37*** |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
Other Vietnam Ho Chi Minh Stock Index / VN-Index Analyses
Other APARCH Analyses on Equity Indices