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Vietnam Ho Chi Minh Stock Index / VN-Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

19.66%

increased by 2.65%

1 Week

19.96%

increased by 2.95%

1 Month

21.02%

increased by 4.01%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:25 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Vietnam Ho Chi Minh Stock Index / VN-Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 12, 2010 to Apr 29, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 109% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.04 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0413
12.97***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1252
30.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8748
192.56***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3402
11.31***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.0390
20.37***

Persistence:

0.975

Half-life:

28 days