Vietnam Ho Chi Minh Stock Index / VN-Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
12.53%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Week
13.30%
increased by 0.17%
1 Month
15.84%
increased by 2.71%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 28, 2000 to Oct 15, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 72 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~72 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0455 | 5.29*** |
| αARCH | 0.1689 | 6.57*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7990 | 51.18*** |
| γleverage | 0.0452 | 1.13 |
0.990
Persistence72d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0455 | 5.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1689 | 6.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7990 | 51.18*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0452 | 1.13 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
72 days
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