V-Lab
Vietnam Ho Chi Minh Stock Index / VN-Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
18.64%
increased by 2.90%
1 Week
18.94%
increased by 3.20%
1 Month
19.91%
increased by 4.17%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 12, 2010 to Apr 29, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.36) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0478 | 13.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1398 | 33.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8294 | 192.76*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3592 | 10.14*** |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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