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V-Lab

US Dollar to New Zealand Dollar Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

7.47%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Week

7.50%

increased by 0.00%

1 Month

7.60%

increased by 0.10%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to New Zealand Dollar S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 76 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~76 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7393
6.75***
αARCH0.0292
5.43***
βGARCH0.9616
142.95***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.0016
-2.16**
γ20.0020
2.11**

0.991

Persistence

76d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7393
6.75***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0292
5.43***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9616
142.95***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.0016
-2.16**
γ20.0020
2.11**

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

76 days