V-Lab
US Dollar to New Zealand Dollar Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
7.47%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
7.50%
increased by 0.00%
1 Month
7.60%
increased by 0.10%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 76 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~76 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7393 | 6.75*** |
| αARCH | 0.0292 | 5.43*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9616 | 142.95*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0016 | -2.16** |
| γ2 | 0.0020 | 2.11** |
0.991
Persistence76d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7393 | 6.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0292 | 5.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9616 | 142.95*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0016 | -2.16** |
| γ2 | 0.0020 | 2.11** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
76 days
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