V-Lab
US Dollar to New Zealand Dollar Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
7.26%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
7.27%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
7.33%
increased by 0.04%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 83 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~83 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8151 | 8.72*** |
| αARCH | 0.0288 | 5.49*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9629 | 147.98*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0006 | -1.92* |
0.992
Persistence83d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8151 | 8.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0288 | 5.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9629 | 147.98*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0006 | -1.92* |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
83 days
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