V-Lab
US Dollar to New Zealand Dollar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
10.05%
increased by 0.96%
1 Week
12.62%
increased by 3.53%
1 Month
13.92%
increased by 4.83%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 07:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8150 | 0.01 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4759 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5759 | 0.01 |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.9955 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.576
Half-life:
1 days
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