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V-Lab

US Dollar to New Zealand Dollar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

7.06%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Week

7.09%

increased by 0.01%

1 Month

7.20%

increased by 0.12%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 07:57 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to New Zealand Dollar GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 99 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 143% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0022
12.72***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0341
17.96***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9689
793.56***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0201
-8.98***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

99 days