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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Softs Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

23.18%

decreased by 0.48%

1 Week

23.13%

decreased by 0.53%

1 Month

22.91%

decreased by 0.75%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:21 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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graph of S&P GSCI Softs Spot Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 17, 1995 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 76 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.37 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5459
10.11***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0362
32.42***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9909
900.01***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.3669
3.03***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

76 days