V-Lab
S&P GSCI Softs Spot Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
22.82%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Week
22.76%
decreased by 0.47%
1 Month
22.54%
decreased by 0.69%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 11:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 17, 1995 to Sep 8, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 53 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9552 | 11.60*** |
| αARCH | 0.0438 | 7.25*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9432 | 122.51*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0001 | -0.77 |
0.987
Persistence53d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9552 | 11.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0438 | 7.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9432 | 122.51*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0001 | -0.77 |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
53 days
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