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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Softs Spot Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

19.26%

decreased by 0.43%

1 Week

19.29%

decreased by 0.40%

1 Month

19.40%

decreased by 0.29%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:22 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Softs Spot Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 17, 1995 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 52 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9546
11.69***
αARCH0.0440
7.27***
βGARCH0.9427
122.16***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0001
-0.76

0.987

Persistence

52d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9546
11.69***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0440
7.27***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9427
122.16***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0001
-0.76

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

52 days