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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Softs Spot Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026

1 Day

19.27%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Week

19.30%

decreased by 0.25%

1 Month

19.41%

decreased by 0.14%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/21/2024

to

10/21/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Softs Spot Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 17, 1995 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 53 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9543
11.66***
αARCH0.0437
7.26***
βGARCH0.9432
123.10***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0001
-0.76

0.987

Persistence

53d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9543
11.66***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0437
7.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9432
123.10***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0001
-0.76

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

53 days