V-Lab
S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
12.51%
1 Week
12.60%
1 Month
12.95%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 185 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.86 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.8529 | 1.17 |
| αARCH | 0.0434 | 9.67*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9963 | 300.08*** |
| νDF | 7.8628 | 1.41 |
0.996
Persistence185d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8529 | 1.17 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0434 | 9.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9963 | 300.08*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.8628 | 1.41 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
185 days
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