Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Spot Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026

1 Day

16.42%

increased by 0.18%

1 Week

16.48%

increased by 0.24%

1 Month

16.71%

increased by 0.47%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 12:09 AM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

11/11/2024

to

11/11/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Spot Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 39 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8313
3.94***
αARCH0.0480
8.00***
βGARCH0.9343
102.86***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ10.0020
0.16
γ20.0136
0.79
γ3-0.0437
-4.34***
γ40.0446
5.04***
γ5-0.0195
-3.24***

0.982

Persistence

39d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8313
3.94***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0480
8.00***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9343
102.86***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ10.0020
0.16
γ20.0136
0.79
γ3-0.0437
-4.34***
γ40.0446
5.04***
γ5-0.0195
-3.24***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

39 days