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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Spot Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

13.30%

decreased by 0.18%

1 Week

13.32%

decreased by 0.16%

1 Month

13.41%

decreased by 0.07%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:54 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Spot Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 27 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2048
5.24***
αARCH0.0483
7.33***
βGARCH0.9263
83.69***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ10.0647
3.08***
γ2-0.0895
-3.00***
γ30.0646
3.50***
γ4-0.0965
-6.05***
γ50.0778
5.01***
γ6-0.0057
-0.33
γ7-0.0539
-1.72*

0.975

Persistence

27d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2048
5.24***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0483
7.33***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9263
83.69***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ10.0647
3.08***
γ2-0.0895
-3.00***
γ30.0646
3.50***
γ4-0.0965
-6.05***
γ50.0778
5.01***
γ6-0.0057
-0.33
γ7-0.0539
-1.72*

Persistence:

0.975

Half-life:

27 days