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S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Spot Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

14.51%

increased by 0.01%

1 Week

14.60%

increased by 0.10%

1 Month

14.93%

increased by 0.43%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 11:02 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Spot Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 111 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.66 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~111 daysδ = 1.66 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0098
3.64***
αARCH0.0500
7.64***
βGARCH0.9490
155.73***
γleverage0.0179
0.33
δpower1.6567
7.33***

0.994

Persistence

111d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0098
3.64***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0500
7.64***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9490
155.73***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0179
0.33
δ

power

Transformation power

1.6567
7.33***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

111 days