V-Lab
S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Spot Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
15.65%
1 Week
15.73%
1 Month
16.00%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:55 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 111 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.66 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0098 | 3.65*** |
| αARCH | 0.0501 | 7.64*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9489 | 155.09*** |
| γleverage | 0.0180 | 0.33 |
| δpower | 1.6609 | 7.34*** |
0.994
Persistence111d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0098 | 3.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0501 | 7.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9489 | 155.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0180 | 0.33 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.6609 | 7.34*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
111 days
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