S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Spot Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
14.51%
1 Week
14.60%
1 Month
14.93%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 11:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 111 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.66 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0098 | 3.64*** |
| αARCH | 0.0500 | 7.64*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9490 | 155.73*** |
| γleverage | 0.0179 | 0.33 |
| δpower | 1.6567 | 7.33*** |
0.994
Persistence111d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0098 | 3.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0500 | 7.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9490 | 155.73*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0179 | 0.33 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.6567 | 7.33*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
111 days
Other S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Spot Index Analyses
Other APARCH Analyses on Commodities