V-Lab
S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
25.57%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Week
25.70%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Month
26.18%
increased by 0.39%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:21 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1995 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 38 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6526 | 7.48*** |
| αARCH | 0.0694 | 7.31*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9127 | 84.96*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0196 | -4.83*** |
| γ2 | 0.0278 | 4.57*** |
| γ3 | -0.0105 | -3.09*** |
0.982
Persistence38d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6526 | 7.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0694 | 7.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9127 | 84.96*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0196 | -4.83*** |
| γ2 | 0.0278 | 4.57*** |
| γ3 | -0.0105 | -3.09*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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