V-Lab
S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
27.21%
1 Week
27.30%
1 Month
27.64%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:58 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1995 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 51% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.63 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0311 | 4.80*** |
| αARCH | 0.0727 | 7.63*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9247 | 100.96*** |
| γleverage | 0.1253 | 1.99** |
| δpower | 1.6303 | 8.84*** |
0.990
Persistence68d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0311 | 4.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0727 | 7.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9247 | 100.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1253 | 1.99** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.6303 | 8.84*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
68 days
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